Emerging Trend of Change in Rainfall patterns and its impact on Traditional Farming Systems

Any changes occurred in climatic conditions affecting rainfall patterns will have an adverse impact on agriculture eventually affecting the economic well-being of the people. As weather pattern changes, the economy of farmers, which depends on traditional subsistence-based agriculture, become more vulnerable and difficult.

Rainfalls of Jestha and Ashar (mid July) have been shifted to Shrawan and Bhadra which has negatively affected the paddy production. Variability in the onset of the rainy season has lead to variation in the start of the planting season of rain fed rice. Paddy cultivation in Kirtipur Municipality which lies in the middle hills physio-graphic region of Nepal with the land system characterized by gentle undulating topography at an elevation varying from 1284m to 1524m above mean sea level depends on rainfall.

Since 2005 variability of rainfall during monsoon has significantly reduced the paddy production up to by 50%. Assessment of peoples dependency on agriculture and other sources of income for livelihood, estimation of agricultural production trend, peoples perception on ongoing change on rainfall pattern, temperature and their measures of adaptation technique have been made.

Rainfall pattern has been evaluated after the analysis of hydrological stations representing the study area in terms of attitudinal variations and geographic outlook. The study revealed that rise in temperature and changes in the amount of rainfall and its distribution have altered availability of water resources consequently affecting the productivity of rice grown in the different parts of the study area.

Geographic limits and yields of rice have been distorted by changes in precipitation, temperature, as well as soil moisture. High temperatures and diminished rainfall have reduced soil moisture in the study area reducing the water availability and damaging the growth. Hence the changes in temperature, rainfall and changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events are damaging to agriculture. The study report presents findings, discussion as well as recommendations for future actions.